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Blog Post
April 24, 2023
That said, there are reasons to doubt that a declining working age population would have a long-term effect on prices. They are based on an argument that economists have long made when it comes to migration into economies where the domestic labor force was still expanding, termed the “lump of labor ...
Blog Post
April 10, 2023
The world has never been more educated, our populations more connected. Technological advance in areas from solar and fusion power through batteries to satellites and cancer vaccines will help deliver sustained development. Ending extreme ($2.15 a day) poverty, while long overdue, is on a trajectory...
Blog Post
April 07, 2023
Another spring and summer season of international meetings follows yet another dire warning on climate, with action again lagging pledges. We need a “spring cleaning” of global ambition to focus on practical goals that can be achieved this year. Each institution—multilateral and national, public and...
Blog Post
March 20, 2023
The UK's Energy Price Guarantee increased CO2 emissions by 3.2 million tonnes over the period October 2022-April 2023—double the achievements of UK climate mitigation aid over the same period, which we estimate at a reduction of just 1.6 million tonnes of CO2, demonstrating that when it is expedient...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
I'm not a huge fan of arbitrary lines through country income levels to create income thresholds. That is because there is no obvious clustering of countries within the global (country-level) income distribution, and moving from one income status to another does not correlate with trend breaks or end...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
In a new paper, Zack Gehan and I present scenarios for the global economy in 2050. These scenarios build on a forecast of economic growth built around income, population, education, and temperature. The process suggests a considerable degree of uncertainty about how the world will look in three de...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
The Sustainable Development Goals commit the world to ending extreme poverty by 2030. More cautiously, the World Bank’s twin goals suggest it can help reduce extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030. Neither goal can be accomplished unless the extreme poverty line is (finally) fixed rather than constant...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
Forecasts of the future shape of the global economy, if they are at least somewhat accurate, can help planning and policy discussions in areas from global governance through business expansion plans. At the same time, this relies on forecasts in fact being somewhat accurate, and it’s a cliché that p...
Blog Post
January 26, 2023
With the abandonment of its Zero COVID policy, the Chinese economy is expected to rebound and contribute substantively to global economic growth in the latter part of 2023. This is projected to add to world demand for oil, more than offsetting falling demand from advanced countries whose economies a...