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Blog Post
March 10, 2023
In a recent piece with my colleague Mark Plant, I highlighted the financial pressures facing the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). The surge in PRGT lending during the pandemic and the continued high level of lending since then provided essential support to low-income countries (LICs)...
Blog Post
March 09, 2023
Many advanced-economy countries are looking for ways to recycle their excess Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to support more vulnerable countries whose economies are being buffeted by the economic aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The G20 has pledged $100 billion ...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
I'm not a huge fan of arbitrary lines through country income levels to create income thresholds. That is because there is no obvious clustering of countries within the global (country-level) income distribution, and moving from one income status to another does not correlate with trend breaks or end...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
In a new paper, Zack Gehan and I present scenarios for the global economy in 2050. These scenarios build on a forecast of economic growth built around income, population, education, and temperature. The process suggests a considerable degree of uncertainty about how the world will look in three de...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
The Sustainable Development Goals commit the world to ending extreme poverty by 2030. More cautiously, the World Bank’s twin goals suggest it can help reduce extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030. Neither goal can be accomplished unless the extreme poverty line is (finally) fixed rather than constant...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
Forecasts of the future shape of the global economy, if they are at least somewhat accurate, can help planning and policy discussions in areas from global governance through business expansion plans. At the same time, this relies on forecasts in fact being somewhat accurate, and it’s a cliché that p...
Blog Post
February 21, 2023
The IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) is now up and running, with the first countries receiving commitments of financial support. But if lending from the RST is to achieve its objectives, the IMF should take a radically different approach in applying conditions to the loans.