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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
December 18, 2023
The Lancet Investing in Health Commission, led by Larry Summers and Dean Jamison in 2013, envisioned a grand convergence in key health indicators by 2035 between low-income and low-middle-income countries and the best-performing middle-income countries. Given significant global changes since the rep...
Blog Post
October 30, 2023
Realizing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and tackling the climate crisis in developing nations demands substantial investments. A recent report commissioned by the G20 estimated that for developing countries (encompassing low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income nations), a...
Blog Post
August 30, 2023
Developing Asia as a region has experienced rapid growth over the past three decades. What have these episodes of sustained growth meant for income inequality? Has the region had “inclusive growth,” meaning growth which saw incomes rise without inequality increasing, or has inequality gotten worse? ...
WORKING PAPERS
August 30, 2023
Higher levels of fiscal redistribution, through income taxes and direct transfers, increase the probability of achieving inclusive growth. To spur inclusive growth in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, countries with limited fiscal space will need to focus on improving efficiency and reallocate ex...
Blog Post
August 22, 2023
A recent, thought-provoking blog by our colleague, Justin Sandefur, titled “How Economists got Africa’s AIDS Epidemic Wrong”, has sparked a debate about the historical role of cost-effectiveness analysis in assessing the investments of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and, imp...
Blog Post
August 02, 2023
The future of such spending in countries currently experiencing or at high risk of debt distress is particularly troubling. A country is in debt distress when its ability to service domestic and external debt is impaired. This blog post delves into these issues based on more recent health spending a...
Blog Post
May 23, 2023
The past year has been challenging and turbulent for many frontier markets in Africa. In 2022, African economies met headwinds of inflation, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sovereign debt challenges. This led to a decrease in demand for African goods and services, as well as reduced inve...