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Blog Post
November 08, 2023
How stable do emerging markets look now, in 2023? Which countries would be most and least resilient if another global adverse shock were to happen? A simple indicator constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables was able to identify in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and...
Blog Post
September 14, 2022
In March, the World Bank estimated that a dozen developing countries could default on their debt over the next 12 months. The warning signs are everywhere. Investors have pulled $50 billion from emerging-market bond funds this year, and the debt of nearly one-third of these countries is trading at d...
Blog Post
March 16, 2017
The rate is still very low at 0.75% in the US, and, in addition, there is no perception or expectation that rates are about to rise in other advanced economies such as Japan or the EU. Taken together then, interest rates in advanced economies look set to stay extremely low. So, for now at least, eme...
Blog Post
February 09, 2011
This is a joint post with Wren Elhai.
What everyone was expecting is now official. On July 9th, South Sudan will become the world’s newest country. But while the date is certain, there are still plenty of details to be worked out. There is no deal as of yet on sharing Sudan’s oil wealth, or on it...