As we head into June, reports have continued to emerge that highlight the magnitude of the indirect effects the COVID-19 pandemic is having on health systems around the world. The pandemic has created additional barriers for patients accessing essential care, whether it be restrictions on movement, transportation restrictions, stigma, impoverishment from loss of livelihoods, or avoidance of care due to concerns over contracting the virus.
CGD Policy Blogs
In stressing the high numbers of additional people who are dying as an indirect result of COVID-19 measures, we may have given the impression that we believe that there would be no additional non-COVID-19 deaths in an unmitigated scenario. We don’t believe that. We aimed to illustrate how the calculator works, and to demonstrate how users can adapt it to their own setting. The key to the tool is that each user is able to adapt it for their own setting.
Before COVID-19, the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic (EVD epidemic), was one of the most heavily modelled outbreaks in history. Within the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, 31 mathematical models were developed. Despite the clear differences in the two outbreaks, the EVD epidemic can help us draw lessons to improve COVID-19 modelling and its reach in policymaking. We discuss some of those learnings in this piece
We have developed a simple tool that enables users to estimate non-COVID-19 health effects for their own context, using their own data or assumptions. In this blog, we explain how the COVID-19 Net Health Impact Calculator works and demonstrate its use by providing some preliminary estimates for the Sahel region. We encourage you to explore the calculator and read more about its use in its user guide.
This is the first in a series of blogs in which we’ll focus on non-COVID-19 excess deaths caused by the response to COVID-19, part of a larger project at CGD to help policymakers minimize the indirect health impacts of the pandemic.
The full impacts of COVID-19 and the restrictions adopted to mitigate the pandemic are yet to be fully revealed. We do not know the number of deaths indirectly related to the novel coronavirus around the world, and how these may differ from country to country. We are launching an inventory to track the evolving situation.
An open call for resources on the indirect impact of COVID-19 on health systems.
This blog focuses on hospital treatment for COVID-19 patients in low-resource-settings, considering what we know about the spectrum of COVID-19 illness and what this tells us about where resources might best be focused in low-resource-settings. As elsewhere, decision makers, global and local, must prioritise resourcing and capacity development for the ward-level care and simple oxygen therapy that most hospitalised COVID-19 patients will need—not the high-end clinical care that may well be impossible to scale-up in time in countries with limited resources.
With the 2019 Nobel prize for economics going to Western economists combating poverty in LMICs through RCT-generated evidence, the time is ripe for the global community and national leaders to invest in a similar and yet different type of capacity: local pragmatic research infrastructure for learning healthcare systems.