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CGD Policy Blogs

 

An image of someone receiving a malaria test

The Indirect Health Effects of COVID-19: Lockdown Measures and Service Provision

As we head into June, reports have continued to emerge that highlight the magnitude of the indirect effects the COVID-19 pandemic is having on  health systems around the world. The pandemic has created additional barriers for patients accessing essential care, whether it be restrictions on movement, transportation restrictions, stigma, impoverishment from loss of livelihoods, or avoidance of care due to concerns over contracting the virus.

Lab technicians analyze blood samples at Hospital do Subúrbio (Suburban Hospital), Brazil's first hospital under a public-private partnership model, in a low-income area of Salvador, Bahia. Photo: Mariana Ceratti / World Bank

Applying Caution with Unmitigated Scenarios: A Closer Look at Non-COVID-19 Deaths

In stressing the high numbers of additional people who are dying as an indirect result of COVID-19 measures, we may have given the impression that we believe that there would be no additional non-COVID-19 deaths in an unmitigated scenario. We don’t believe that. We aimed to illustrate how the calculator works, and to demonstrate how users can adapt it to their own setting. The key to the tool is that each user is able to adapt it for their own setting.

Disease Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Have We Learned from Previous Outbreaks?

Before COVID-19, the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic (EVD epidemic), was one of the most heavily modelled outbreaks in history. Within the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, 31 mathematical models were developed. Despite the clear differences in the two outbreaks, the EVD epidemic can help us draw lessons to improve COVID-19 modelling and its reach in policymaking. We discuss some of those learnings in this piece

A map showing the stringency of lockdowns in Africa. Image from Our World in Data.

A Tool to Estimate the Net Health Impact of COVID-19 Policies

We have developed a simple tool that enables users to estimate non-COVID-19 health effects for their own context, using their own data or assumptions. In this blog, we explain how the COVID-19 Net Health Impact Calculator works and demonstrate its use by providing some preliminary estimates for the Sahel region. We encourage you to explore the calculator and read more about its use in its user guide.

A figure showing that the patients with the most critical cases are a small percentage but their case takes most of the resources required.

Strengthening the Basics: Approaches to COVID-19 Care in Low-Resource Settings

This blog focuses on hospital treatment for COVID-19 patients in low-resource-settings, considering what we know about the spectrum of COVID-19 illness and what this tells us about where resources might best be focused in low-resource-settings. As elsewhere, decision makers, global and local, must prioritise resourcing and capacity development for the ward-level care and simple oxygen therapy that most hospitalised COVID-19 patients will need—not the high-end clinical care that may well be impossible to scale-up in time in countries with limited resources.  

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