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CGD Policy Blogs

 

How Plausible Are the Predictions of AIDS Models?

UNAIDS, WHO, PEPFAR and the Global Fund for AIDS TB and Malaria (GFATM) all depend on long-run projections in order to make the case for increased attention and financing for AIDS.  This dependency is a response to the reality that HIV is a slow epidemic with extraordinary “momentum”.  Even small changes in the course of new infections require years to implement and have health and fiscal consequences for decades thereafter.  According to the UNAIDS web site, “[s]ince 2001, the UNAIDS Secretariat have le

Report on the Long-Term Burden of HIV/AIDS in Africa to be Launched Monday, November 29

About a year ago the Institute of Medicine assembled a committee of 12 to advise the US on the implications for its policy towards Africa of the long-term burden of AIDS there.  The two co-chairs of the committee, Tom Quinn and David Serwadda, will release the report findings to the press on Monday, November 27 here in DC, and I will help them respond to questions from the press and public.  A formal description of the committee’s mandate and a complete list of the committee members can be found here.  If you would