UNAIDS prevalence estimates formed the basis of the missed "3 by 5" target, and so the news that they were so highly inflated is particularly timely coming on the heels of the WHO report on the initiative, which (among other things) illustrates the perverse relationship between disease estimates, advocacy targets and pharmaceutical markets.
CGD Policy Blogs
In a recent article, How AIDS in Africa Was Overstated, Washington Post correspondent Craig Timberg presents evidence that global HIV/AIDS rates have been systematically overestimated by UNAIDS based on the long-held (and erroneous) assumption that infection rates among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics can serve as a rough proxy of the general adult prevalence in that country.
An article in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds a substantial herd immunity effect from the pneumo vaccine. Infections in children below 2 (that is, younger than the age at which vaccinations are usually given) have fallen by 60%.