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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
WORKING PAPERS
April 04, 2024
Star firms, defined as the top 10 percentile of firms in the world in terms of return on invested capital, are more likely to occur in high-income countries and manufacturing industry, but there is an increasing share of star firms from middle-income countries and the services sector. Star firms hav...
WORKING PAPERS
April 02, 2024
Starting in 2001, duty-free access to U.S. markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) led to a brief boom in African manufacturing exports, particularly apparel, which then fizzled in the face of unfettered Chinese competition after 2005. The looming expiration of AGOA—and eroding C...
CGD NOTES
March 11, 2024
Pakistan’s recent economic history shows why it has been so difficult to service the external debt and why this will continue to be a challenge in the future. First, external debt has not been used to expand public investment for many years now; instead, it has largely supported government consumpti...
WORKING PAPERS
February 08, 2024
A fracturing of the institutional infrastructure undergirding globalization would harm efforts to cope with urgent national problems and international crises. The imperative for the leading economic powers is to defuse threats to globalization and to promote resilience of global value chains. The fl...
CGD NOTES
February 02, 2024
Most of the episodes in this series have been about my luck and privilege as a white and well-off American; they reflect my growing realization that the luck and privilege I’ve enjoyed in the nearly eight decades of my lifetime are in good part a product of America’s vast wealth and power throughout...
POLICY PAPERS
November 08, 2023
Haiti is once more experiencing a crisis of instability and political unrest. The devastating 2010 earthquake was seen as a chance to break with the past and steer the nation in a new direction, but although some progress was made, it was short-lived, insufficient to establish a path for growth, une...
CGD NOTES
November 08, 2023
The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is due to expire in 2025, a quarter of a century after it was first enacted. AGOA provides qualifying sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for most agricultural and manufactured products. Its architects and supporters point...
WORKING PAPERS
August 29, 2023
The war in Ukraine was associated with large changes in the prices of key food and fuel commodities in 2022 which produced macroeconomic gains for exporters and losses as import costs increased. Across 49 countries benefitting, these gains averaged about 8 percent of GDP and reach up to 36 percent o...