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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
February 22, 2024
Is there a relationship between climate change and conflict? Gyude speaks to Dr. Edward (Ted) Miguel of University of California Berkley about the impact of rising temperatures, extreme droughts, and floods on competition for resources, and how governments can respond to climate change’s compounding...
Blog Post
September 13, 2023
Olu Verheijen from the Nigerian government and Vijaya Ramachandran from the Breakthrough Institute join Gyude to discuss the scale and nature of the energy crisis in Africa, the role that renewable energy can (and can't) play in addressing it, and what steps African countries—and partners—can take t...
Blog Post
June 01, 2023
Africa is home to 30 percent of the world’s critical minerals reserves, which play a key role in clean energy. How can African communities benefit? Gyude speaks with Ayaan Adam (Africa Finance Corporation) and Juliet Akamboe (formerly Standard Bank Group) about how to strengthen processing and refin...
Blog Post
May 23, 2023
The past year has been challenging and turbulent for many frontier markets in Africa. In 2022, African economies met headwinds of inflation, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sovereign debt challenges. This led to a decrease in demand for African goods and services, as well as reduced inve...
Blog Post
April 24, 2023
That said, there are reasons to doubt that a declining working age population would have a long-term effect on prices. They are based on an argument that economists have long made when it comes to migration into economies where the domestic labor force was still expanding, termed the “lump of labor ...
Blog Post
April 10, 2023
The world has never been more educated, our populations more connected. Technological advance in areas from solar and fusion power through batteries to satellites and cancer vaccines will help deliver sustained development. Ending extreme ($2.15 a day) poverty, while long overdue, is on a trajectory...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
I'm not a huge fan of arbitrary lines through country income levels to create income thresholds. That is because there is no obvious clustering of countries within the global (country-level) income distribution, and moving from one income status to another does not correlate with trend breaks or end...