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WORKING PAPERS
June 05, 2024
This study investigates the link between Southwest US border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000–2023). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings align with...
CGD NOTES
April 08, 2024
This note presents the concept of Day Zero Financing, a proposed solution for how the world should respond to future pandemics. It begins with a definition of Day Zero Financing, emphasizing its importance and how it operates. The discussion then covers 10 essential aspects of the concept, including...
WORKING PAPERS
November 13, 2023
Epidemics and pandemics pose a sporadic and sometimes severe threat to human health. How should policymakers prioritize preventing and preparing for such events, relative to other needs? Our simulations suggest that an event having the mortality level of COVID-19 should not be considered a “once in ...
WORKING PAPERS
August 29, 2023
The war in Ukraine was associated with large changes in the prices of key food and fuel commodities in 2022 which produced macroeconomic gains for exporters and losses as import costs increased. Across 49 countries benefitting, these gains averaged about 8 percent of GDP and reach up to 36 percent o...
BRIEFS
June 20, 2023
The Pandemic Fund should strategically invest in pandemic preparedness, including for its first call for proposals for surveillance, laboratories, and human resources. This strategic approach should consider both ex ante and ex post considerations of investments for pandemic preparedness.
POLICY PAPERS
June 20, 2023
This policy paper examines the state of knowledge on investing in the “best buys” of surveillance for pandemic preparedness. We conduct a rapid literature review to assess the state of knowledge on the costs and benefits of investing in four selected types of surveillance for respiratory infections,...
CGD NOTES
June 06, 2023
This proposed Resource Allocation Framework may inform country-level allocation decisions by the Pandemic Fund for its first call for proposals supporting surveillance, laboratories, and human resources. This framework incorporates three measures of pandemic risk and one index of need for surveillan...
CGD NOTES
February 28, 2023
The policy discussions about PPR are noteworthy. But the global public sector is underinvesting in pandemic response. This creates the illusion of safety without the finance or planning in place to provide it. We cannot delay planning for response financing when the next pandemic hits, by which time...
WORKING PAPERS
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
WORKING PAPERS
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...