Ideas to action: independent research for global prosperity
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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
WORKING PAPERS
April 04, 2024
Star firms, defined as the top 10 percentile of firms in the world in terms of return on invested capital, are more likely to occur in high-income countries and manufacturing industry, but there is an increasing share of star firms from middle-income countries and the services sector. Star firms hav...
CGD NOTES
March 11, 2024
Pakistan’s recent economic history shows why it has been so difficult to service the external debt and why this will continue to be a challenge in the future. First, external debt has not been used to expand public investment for many years now; instead, it has largely supported government consumpti...
WORKING PAPERS
October 05, 2023
This paper uses a straightforward Resilience Indicator, constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables, to show that by 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks, it was possible to identify emerging markets and developing countries that would encounter ...
WORKING PAPERS
September 22, 2023
Using new data from the European Banking Authority on loan recovery outcomes, we examine how variation in loan recovery efficiency affects the transmission of financial sector and overall economic weakness to firm-level financial and real outcomes. We find that firms linked to under-capitalized bank...
POLICY PAPERS
September 05, 2023
The G20 is well placed to provide the leadership needed to ensure that research is a global public good by elevating the discourse on research publishing reform and acknowledging that this is not merely a niche concern for researchers but an important global challenge that underpins human progress.
CGD NOTES
August 18, 2023
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for COVID-19 on May 5 and for mpox on May 11, 2023. Throughout its use, the meaning of the PHEIC has been muddled. We call for a new, objective epidemic scale that better communicates...
BRIEFS
July 31, 2023
India is racing against the clock in its fight against antimicrobial resistance. A combination of complex regulatory and procurement systems, a lack of health insurance penetration, and little groundwork on state and national action plans has stymied progress. A multifold approach is needed to impro...
CGD NOTES
June 16, 2023
In this note we assess the potential short-term fiscal impact of these instruments. We look at three major natural disasters over the past two years and assess how much relief each country would have received if DSCs had been included in the totality of their external debt instruments.