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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
CGD NOTES
March 11, 2024
Pakistan’s recent economic history shows why it has been so difficult to service the external debt and why this will continue to be a challenge in the future. First, external debt has not been used to expand public investment for many years now; instead, it has largely supported government consumpti...
WORKING PAPERS
February 23, 2024
As the politics of polarization gain traction and electoral support, a new vintage of populism is emerging in Latin America. This new version shares some aspects with the type of cultural populism now common in advanced economies that divides societies into antagonistic camps. But there are also imp...
WORKING PAPERS
February 20, 2024
This paper provides a discussion of future trends as established in the literature on the interaction between socioeconomic indicators and projected future climate change scenarios. It enhances our understanding of future predicted patterns of climate change effects in the coming decades and the nee...
WORKING PAPERS
February 08, 2024
A fracturing of the institutional infrastructure undergirding globalization would harm efforts to cope with urgent national problems and international crises. The imperative for the leading economic powers is to defuse threats to globalization and to promote resilience of global value chains. The fl...
CGD NOTES
February 02, 2024
Most of the episodes in this series have been about my luck and privilege as a white and well-off American; they reflect my growing realization that the luck and privilege I’ve enjoyed in the nearly eight decades of my lifetime are in good part a product of America’s vast wealth and power throughout...
SPEECHES
November 02, 2023
On October 30, 2023, CGD senior fellow Charles Kenny delivered remarks at the Oxford Martin School, where he is a visiting fellow. His speech, “The future of global development and implications for aid,” focused on global economic change and its impact on the development prospects of low- and middle...
WORKING PAPERS
November 02, 2023
There is a non-trivial chance that ODA for non-humanitarian and climate finance will fall in absolute terms over the coming years and that aid will become increasingly focused on richer countries. The most promising strategy for bilateral ODA flows may be to increase the generosity of traditional do...