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Blog Post
May 17, 2024
It was a long, hard slog, and there have been a number of setbacks (not least days on end of merciless grey skies and rain), but London has finally settled into a real, actual summer. That means two things: first, everyone is in a ridiculously good mood. We get three weeks of sunshine a year, and it...
Blog Post
May 15, 2024
On Friday, May 10, 2024, the IMF Executive Board approved the recycling of special drawing rights (SDRs) to multilateral development banks (MDBs) for use as hybrid capital. It took a long time to get to this point, and the IMF should be congratulated for overcoming strong opposition, even from some ...
Blog Post
May 10, 2024
It was hit-and-miss for a while—there were a good few weeks when I thought the UK would just completely forego spring and summer and transition directly from winter into autumn—but there are tentative signs of summer in London. London in the summer is a bit like a bird that spends 11 months of the y...
Blog Post
May 10, 2024
Here is a Mother’s Day shout-out to all the mothers working at international financial institutions (IFIs) around the world, and especially to mothers at the two banks I know best: the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, where I worked for a total of almost two decades with at least ...
Blog Post
May 03, 2024
One of the things I missed last week was Jishnu Das’s excellent, heartfelt piece about the state of development economics. But he’s not talking about causal identification or taking potshots in the war on randomization, but about the deeper values that he suggests have gone missing from the discipli...
Blog Post
April 26, 2024
The links are back after a two-and-a-half week break in Argentina, and to be honest, my brain is still not fully re-engaged. Argentina is a hard place to be an economist: announcing your profession begets many questions, some of them hostile, and all of them difficult. It’s an amazing place: friendl...
WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...