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CGD NOTES
May 14, 2024
This note presents two scenarios for the world economy and development prospects to 2050 based on the forecasting exercises and analysis presented in a series of papers by Philip Adom, Augustin Kwasi Fosu, Dede Woade Gafa, Zack Gehan, Brian Webster, Ranil Dissanayake and Charles Kenny.
Blog Post
May 14, 2024
Richer aging countries need educated young workers to provide the services and entrepreneurial talent to sustain their quality of life. A growing population of young, increasingly educated people in poorer countries, and especially in Africa, need good jobs and greater opportunities. More trade in s...
WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
August 01, 2023
A number of aid advocates have started (re)using the fear of migration flows to drum up support for increased, or at least sustained, development and climate finance. Their argument is that such finance will reduce migration flows; that we should support and protect prosperous and sustainable econom...
Blog Post
August 01, 2023
I have already suggested some of what I’d like to see in UK party political manifestos on the topic of global development, and while some of that is outside the remit of a paper that apparently won’t discuss overall funding levels or institutional arrangements, there’s still a lot left. It would be ...
TESTIMONY
July 27, 2023
On June 27, 2023, CGD senior fellow Charles Kenny submitted evidence to the UK International Development Committee inquiry on “Investment for Development: the UK’s strategy towards development finance institutions and the effectiveness of aid spending through British International Investment (BII).”
Blog Post
April 24, 2023
That said, there are reasons to doubt that a declining working age population would have a long-term effect on prices. They are based on an argument that economists have long made when it comes to migration into economies where the domestic labor force was still expanding, termed the “lump of labor ...
Blog Post
April 10, 2023
The world has never been more educated, our populations more connected. Technological advance in areas from solar and fusion power through batteries to satellites and cancer vaccines will help deliver sustained development. Ending extreme ($2.15 a day) poverty, while long overdue, is on a trajectory...