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WORKING PAPERS
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
WORKING PAPERS
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...
POLICY PAPERS
November 03, 2022
Few labor-based pathways for regular migration are available for people in Northern Central America. This paper summarizes the state of labor-based migration channels in the region and argues that extending those channels is a necessary complement to asylum reform. It offers five recommendations for...
POLICY PAPERS
October 18, 2022
Conditional Cash Transfers are increasingly used by development aid agencies to reduce the incentives for migration from low-income countries. The evidence to date suggests that such transfers typically increase the rate of migration when they are conditional on investment, such as investment in edu...
Blog Post
March 23, 2022
The United States was once a major haven for refugees fleeing violent persecution overseas. Today it is much diminished. The US severely restricted refugee resettlement beginning in 2017. Annual refugee arrivals plummeted by 86 percent by fiscal year 2020—almost all before the pandemic. It is a door...
Blog Post
March 23, 2022
The previous US administration sought to end all US admissions of refugees, people who face violent persecution in their home countries. After four years of work dedicated to refugee exclusion, Trump officials succeeded in slashing admissions by 86 percent. In this blog, I’ll show how the Trump admi...
WORKING PAPERS
January 28, 2022
The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists’ study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choic...
WORKING PAPERS
October 14, 2021
How many immigrants with less than university education, for a given immigration quota, maximise economic output? The answer is simple—zero—in the canonical model of the labour market, where the marginal product of a university-educated immigrant is always higher. We build an alternative model, foll...
POLICY PAPERS
October 14, 2021
The demand for skills exceeds supply, both within the Pacific Islands and the high-income countries of the Pacific Rim. Enhancing skilled migration therefore has the potential to generate large economic gains. The Global Skill Partnership is a migration model that can support such mutually beneficia...