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CGD NOTES
May 14, 2024
This note presents two scenarios for the world economy and development prospects to 2050 based on the forecasting exercises and analysis presented in a series of papers by Philip Adom, Augustin Kwasi Fosu, Dede Woade Gafa, Zack Gehan, Brian Webster, Ranil Dissanayake and Charles Kenny.
Blog Post
May 14, 2024
Richer aging countries need educated young workers to provide the services and entrepreneurial talent to sustain their quality of life. A growing population of young, increasingly educated people in poorer countries, and especially in Africa, need good jobs and greater opportunities. More trade in s...
WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
October 25, 2023
A couple of years ago I joked that many development economics papers could be summarized by simply saying “schools: they’re good!”—or as an economist might put it, “the returns to education are positive.” Papers documenting the benefits of education have been at the core of development economics for...
Blog Post
October 12, 2023
The vast majority of out-of-school children around the world live in rural areas. For children who live in rural areas and who are enrolled in school, they are less likely to finish primary school or to transition to secondary school. They score worse on tests. Less educational attainment and lower ...
Blog Post
August 01, 2023
There’s a lot out there on how to improve educational outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. On the one hand, one may be tempted to lean into Finnish education scholar Pasi Sahlberg’s critique: “There are so many ‘facts’ now available about how to fix education, that anyone…can easily gravita...