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Blog Post
April 26, 2024
The links are back after a two-and-a-half week break in Argentina, and to be honest, my brain is still not fully re-engaged. Argentina is a hard place to be an economist: announcing your profession begets many questions, some of them hostile, and all of them difficult. It’s an amazing place: friendl...
WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
April 05, 2024
These links, the second since our makeover, are exceptional in another way: I’m writing them on a Wednesday evening, and they’ll be sent out some time on Friday by my brilliant colleagues in communications. I don’t normally write these ahead of time: they’re drafted directly into an email, with the ...
Blog Post
April 05, 2024
As the Center for Global Development’s inaugural Evidence in Policy Fellow, I just finished an extended engagement to help increase data and evidence use in the State Department’s Office of Foreign Assistance. While at State, I spent much of my time leading and participating in the work of the inter...
WORKING PAPERS
April 02, 2024
Starting in 2001, duty-free access to U.S. markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) led to a brief boom in African manufacturing exports, particularly apparel, which then fizzled in the face of unfettered Chinese competition after 2005. The looming expiration of AGOA—and eroding C...
Blog Post
April 02, 2024
Yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) published new guidance aiming to support government officials as they negotiate and implement international agreements on health worker mobility. In an era characterized as a “global scramble” for health workers, what does this guidance say and how can ...
Blog Post
April 02, 2024
“Trade not aid” is a slogan that appeals to certain instincts on both the left and right. The idea being that rich countries can do more for economic development in poor countries by granting them market access than by sending charity. But will market access really stimulate economic growth in laggi...
Blog Post
March 29, 2024
The US foreign assistance data for FY 2022 is nearly complete, except for some missing Department of Defense, Homeland Security, and Transportation data, and the data reveals some interesting trends. First, FY 2022 did not break the historical record of total obligations, but it came closer than any...