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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
WORKING PAPERS
January 11, 2024
Localization is usually the wrong answer to legitimate data policy issues. As a result, data transfer restrictions wind up imposing unnecessary costs on providers, such as banks, which effectively serves as a tax which is either passed along to the poor or, even worse, makes it uneconomical for firm...
WORKING PAPERS
April 26, 2023
This paper finds that shareholders of highly leveraged firms benefit relatively less compared to bondholders from the corporate quantitative easing (QE) announcements by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England in March 2020, as evidence of debt overhang. Firms more heavily impacted by the ...
WORKING PAPERS
March 17, 2023
We study judicial in-group bias in Indian criminal courts using a newly collected dataset on over 5 million criminal case records from 2010–2018. We do find limited in-group bias in some settings where identity is salient—in particular, we find a small religious in-group bias during Ramadan, and we ...
WORKING PAPERS
June 09, 2022
Does channeling government-to-person (G2P) payments through bank accounts encourage financial inclusion and use? This paper explores the factors that have driven the adoption of digital payments in India by beneficiaries of PMGKY, the large-scale COVID-19 relief program launched in May 2020.
WORKING PAPERS
July 20, 2021
India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest tha...
WORKING PAPERS
June 08, 2021
We conduct an adaptive randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of a SMS-based information campaign on the adoption of social distancing and handwashing in rural Bihar, India, six months into the COVID-19 pandemic. We test 10 arms that vary in delivery timing and message framing, changing ...
WORKING PAPERS
June 07, 2021
Many low- and middle-income countries are looking to achieve universal health coverage by implementing large social health insurance schemes. India has been a frontrunner in this effort, introducing state and national health insurance schemes, especially for tertiary care. Despite these efforts, Ind...
WORKING PAPERS
October 07, 2020
The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) recently produced a long-awaited set of rules for how debt relief on loans should be scored as Official Development Assistance (ODA). Unfortunately, the rules suffer from a number of statistical problems and the DAC needs to take these rules back to th...
WORKING PAPERS
June 27, 2019
The state of Andhra Pradesh is recognized as a leader in using technology to improve the delivery of public services, programs and subsidies. This paper reports on research to better understand the functioning and effectiveness of its reforms to strengthen state capacity by digitalizing service deli...