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Blog Post
February 20, 2024
There is some good news on global climate change. The International Energy Agency suggests we are “at the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, with ‘peak fossil’ likely this decade. And the consensus amongst climate modelers appears to be that the worse scenarios historically used by the IP...
CGD NOTES
February 20, 2024
An increasing proportion of official development assistance (ODA) is being dedicated to climate, and climate mitigation in particular. Even were that spending highly effective, and despite reaching about $30 billion in 2020, it is not large enough to finance investment that would significantly slow ...
Blog Post
October 12, 2023
As the World Bank and IMF meetings wrap up in Morocco, hopes for an imminent revolution in multilateral finance look forlorn. A dollar of capital can support five dollars of lending at the IBRD and the costs of subsidized finance for the poorest countries through IDA are shared amongst more than fif...
Blog Post
April 21, 2023
In our recent paper forecasting global economic outcomes in 2050, we compared our estimates to the five shared socioeconomic pathways developed in 2018–scenarios used as part of climate change forecasting exercises by the IPCC. But these were far from the first global economic forecasts to reach 205...
WORKING PAPERS
March 06, 2023
We develop scenarios for the shape of the global economy in 2050 building on a simple regression of the historic relationship between current income and lagged income, demographic features, climate, and education, using the coefficients to develop a “central” forecast and error terms to set high and...
Blog Post
November 21, 2022
The Open Contracting movement, pushing to make government procurement worldwide considerably more transparent and efficient, has been a huge success. Today, more than 50 countries and cities are implementing policy changes from open electronic bid processes and publishing contracts to posting inspec...
Blog Post
September 23, 2022
Once you’ve looked at policy as a source of societal progress and regress, especially over the long term, it is hard to look at anything else. As a result, I hope ever-more people in the EA community in town this week decide to work in government, or work on making government work better.
Blog Post
August 25, 2022
The existing MCC income cutoff is based on the robust principle that the best buys in global development are concentrated in the world’s poorest countries. (Indeed, when the Corporation started, it only worked in low-income countries for that reason). There is a declining marginal utility of a dolla...
Blog Post
July 05, 2022
For all that investment is far from all we need, we will still need a massive amount of it if we are to meet global targets on sustainable development. Low and zero-carbon power plants; expanded electricity, water and sanitation networks; universal health and education systems—none come cheap. Estim...