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WORKING PAPERS
April 02, 2024
Starting in 2001, duty-free access to U.S. markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) led to a brief boom in African manufacturing exports, particularly apparel, which then fizzled in the face of unfettered Chinese competition after 2005. The looming expiration of AGOA—and eroding C...
Blog Post
April 02, 2024
“Trade not aid” is a slogan that appeals to certain instincts on both the left and right. The idea being that rich countries can do more for economic development in poor countries by granting them market access than by sending charity. But will market access really stimulate economic growth in laggi...
WORKING PAPERS
July 20, 2021
India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest tha...
Blog Post
July 20, 2021
The official Covid death count in India as of end-June 2021 is 400,000. The reality is, of course, catastrophically worse. Unlike in other countries, authoritative excess death estimates based on official data have not been available because government recording of deaths, especially at the center, ...
Blog Post
January 27, 2021
In many African countries, the economic response to the crisis so far appears to have been broadly less consistent than the health response. For mitigation measures to be stronger and more effective, and for sustained recovery to take place, governments, central banks, and regional institutions will...
Blog Post
April 30, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a huge economic toll in low-income countries. The IMF has provided prompt support to help mitigate it, but it could and should do much more. The political commitment of the international community will be essential for the institution to fulfill its potential.