- Patrick Doohan, Research Associate, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London
- Katharina Hauck, Deputy Director of the Jameel Institute, and Professor in Health Economics, Imperial College London
- Anne Bucher, Visiting Fellow, Bruegel
- Sarang Deo, Professor and Executive Director, Max Institute of Healthcare Management, India Business School
- Amanda Glassman, Executive Vice President and Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development
ABOUT THE EVENT
At a CGD event in July, a team of modelers shared their estimates that there is a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID-19 occurring in the next 25 years. There is a clear need to more effectively prepare for future outbreak possibilities, but what is the true return on investment for pandemic preparedness?
A team at the Jameel Institute, Imperial College London conducted extensive modeling work based on an epidemiological-economic model to project the deaths and short-term GDP loss associated with potential future pandemics. Recognizing that the next pandemic might look and act very differently from SARS-Cov-2, they project outcomes for three different outbreak mitigation strategies: unmitigated, full lockdown, and reactive closures in four countries (USA, UK, China, and India) with four respiratory pathogens (COVID-like, Spanish flu-like, SARS-like, and Swine flu-like).
Their results point to pandemic preparedness as a highly cost-effective investment for protecting both health and economic well-being. They find that the number of deaths averted by investments in pandemic preparedness average between 49 and 124 per 100,000 population, depending on the country. Should a COVID-like pandemic strike the US in the next decade, they estimate that for every dollar spent on pandemic preparedness, the expected health gain in averted deaths would be $1,703 and the expected economic gain in averted GDP loss would be $1,102.
Join CGD for a discussion on what implications these findings have for policy at the national and international level, why financing the global common of pandemic preparedness now is so critical.