Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development
Guillermo Calvo Professor, Columbia University
Former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
President of Banorte. Former Governor of Central Bank of Mexico
Dean, School of Government and Professor, Universidad Torcuato di Tella
Former Vice-Minister of Finance, Argentina
Former Minister of Finance, Argentina
Pedro Carvalho de Mello Professor, ESALQ, Universidade de São Paulo
Former Commissioner of Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, Brazil
Over the last year, economic and financial uncertainties in developed countries have been increasing. Not only has the European crisis intensified and the camp of analysts predicting one or more defaults in the Euro area has expanded, but also the issue of the sustainability of the United States sovereign debt has taken center stage in the policy debate. Political dithering in the developed world is exacerbating these problems further.
But problems in the North don’t stay there. Instead, they are increasing vulnerabilities in the South, fueling large capital inflows that may be subject to sudden reversals and and very high and volatile commodity prices. The Latin American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF) will discuss the extent of the potential damage to growth and stability in emerging market economies, especially Latin America, arising from the severe problems facing developed countries. In particular, the Committee will address:
• Whether current difficulties in the North could lead to a fresh global crisis of “Lehman’s dimensions”
• Whether the resilience shown by many emerging markets, especially Latin America, during the 2008-09 global crisis could be repeated if a new severe global disruption were to emerge.
• Whether early signals of economic and financial instability have already appeared in Latin America; and
• What policy options should Latin America take to avoid a “band aid approach” where many small remedies fail to achieve the desired cure.