The World at 10 Billion

In a recent op-ed published in the New York Times International Edition, I discuss the United Nations' new projections on population. The UN Population Division recently raised its estimate for global population to reach 10.1 billion by 2100—a steep increase from the previous projections which showed the world's population leveling off at 9 billion by 2050. Clearly, the UN has been too optimistic in its assumptions about how long it would take for many countries to reach replacement fertility. In this editorial, I suggest that rather than thinking about "population," we think about how fertility and mortality differentially affect population levels and growth rates, and how effective family planning policies can lead to lower fertility, which in turn, reduce child and maternal mortality.You can access the full text of the op-ed here.