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A few days ago, Google put online a tool designed as a time-suck for the holiday season (HT to Marginal Revolution for the link). Google N-gram viewer allows you to type in some search terms and it spits out how often those terms appear in Google Books by year of publication. Google books now contains 5,195,769 digitized books –or about 4% of all books ever published—so that it’s a pretty powerful tool to monitor cultural trends. (Here’s the Science article that describes the database and some of what you can do with it --free registration required). There are some problems with the database –not least, the optical scanners used to create the corpus sometimes have trouble with blurry print, and on occasion the publication dates are mixed up (which might help to explain this early appearance of the Internet in books from the 1900s). But people in the development field are well used to noting data quality concerns and getting on with the analysis regardless, so here goes:
Over time, Roy Harrod (father of the theory of economic growth that suggested investment was key) lost out to Robert Solow (who looked to technology) who in turn lost out to Douglass North (who thinks it’s all about institutions).
Dependency theory beat out urban bias as a topic of debate –but both are on the wane.
Conversely, structural adjustment won out over import substitution –although note that the N-Gram viewer doesn’t report if the mentions were positive or negative… The MDGs have some way to go as a development paradigm to match either of these.
The World Bank is more interesting than the IMF, but both are beaten out by Santa.
Update: Martin Ravallion at the World Bank had the same idea: here is his take on what you can learn about development from N-Grams. And while we’re at it, watch the rise and fall of communism and compare our existential threat concerns over time.
CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.
The world is in the throes of a health, economic, and social crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Slower global growth has significantly worsened the economic prospects for all countries, including the poorest ones. Low-income countries (LICs) are also finding it more difficult to service their external debt as well as to access private capital—concessional and non-concessional