Demand Forecasting Featured in Scientific American

January 04, 2007

The Scientific American features a new article on the challenges of demand forecasting for global health products:

Unpredictable demand creates a three-way catch-22 problem [...] Poor countries have to know the price of a vaccine to see if they can afford it. Manufacturers, however, are hesitant to set a price unless they know how many doses will be bought. And aid donors cannot be sure they can subsidize a purchase without knowing the price and quantity of the sale.

The author, J.R. Minkel, goes on on to highlight many of the ongoing efforts in this area, including CGD's own Global Health Forecasting Working Group.

Disclaimer

CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.