Senior fellow David Wheeler's climate vulnerability work was featured in a New York Times article on climate change in the Middle East.
From the Article
Climate change may be the last thing that leaders of revolution-riddled countries in the Middle East want to deal with now. But before long, experts say, the problems caused by rising global temperatures could disfigure the land they are fighting over.
From disappearing snow in Lebanon to rising seas threatening Bahrain to flooding in Tunisia and Egypt, climate change already is giving the Middle East and North Africa a good deal to worry about. And those who work in the region note that governments -- struggling to maintain power and in some cases engaging in all-out warfare with their citizens -- are losing valuable time needed to adapt.
"Climate change and the environmental agenda is not anywhere in the top priorities of our governments, and wasn't on the agenda since even before the revolution," said Wael Hmaidan, executive director of the League of Independent Activists in Beirut.
Curiously, many governments are embracing renewable energy development even as they ignore adaptation needs. Egypt, Morocco and Jordan all are making serious strides, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has long been a regional leader in clean energy, and now even other oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are signaling their interest in solar and other low-carbon energy sources.
Hmaidan and others blame the disconnect on the suppression of free expression and the media. While some governments, like that of the UAE, have shown a sincere desire to address climate change, he said, for others, it's hard to tell if the interest is part of a real move to a low-carbon strategy or a mere jump on the renewables bandwagon for a short-term economic infusion. In the meantime, few countries are taking steps to build resilience or adapt to weather-related climate change impacts.
"You need civil society and free media in order to really change the priorities of the governments," Hmaidan said. "It has to become part of their core economic strategy."
Water stress for 100M people
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the water-scarce and thirsty Middle East is considered one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change impacts. If temperatures increase up to 4 degrees Celsius by 2050, the result could be a 20 to 30 percent water drop-off in countries spanning North Africa and the Mediterranean.
According the World Bank, that could mean as many as 100 million people exposed to water stress. Meanwhile, in urban parts of North Africa, researchers predict that a temperature increase of up to 3 degrees could expose up to 25 million people to flooding.
A recent study on climate change vulnerability rankings from the Center for Global Development found that five Middle Eastern and North African countries ranked in the top 20 at risk from sea level rise by 2050. They are: Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates.