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The number of HIV-related deaths each year is falling globally, treatment is becoming more effective and cheaper, yet the rate of new infections is still too high to reach the UN’s goal of less than 500,000 new infections per year by 2020. CGD’s work on the economics of HIV introduced the concept of the AIDS transition—the point in time when the number of people living with the disease begins to fall. Our work also models the effects and implications of policies to reduce new infections and expand treatment.
Looming budget cuts for FY2012 and recent reports about the decline in AIDS funding from the USG in FY2010 relative to FY2009 have triggered the classic Washington, D.C. tug-of-war; global health and development advocates are pushing to maintain funding levels, if not to increase them, and the U.S. Congress is looking for ways to increase oversight and management of taxpayer dollars. Advocates are rightly pointing out what would happen if we don’t have the money and Congress is rightly signaling that the party is over. What’s new? Nothing.
Budget season this year is messy and confusing. While the FY2011 budget remains unsettled, some focus is about to shift to President Obama’s FY2012 budget request. Secretary Clinton kicks off the FY2012 budget hearings tomorrow with back-to-back sessions in front of House authorizers and appropriators. Here’s what the FY2012 budget could mean for the Global Health Initiative (GHI) and what members of Congress might ask Clinton about U.S. global health spending.
CGD senior fellow Mead Over and Owen McCarthy offer a users' manual and Stata software to help students and instructors of public health, development economics, or health economics to project the future budgetary cost of AIDS treatment in poor countries and to explore the many factors affecting the calculation.
This dataset compiles selected global variables on AIDS and its treatment and prevention. The data are in the format developed by the Stata statistical software corporation and are intended for use with Over and McCarthy's AIDSCost package for the purpose of projecting the future budgetary cost of scaling up AIDS treatment.
Clear and rigorous evidence on the contributions of US global health programs is more important than ever, as the White House and lawmakers discuss and debate budgets and the future of US support to global health. Such information aids policymakers who must prioritize support to effective public health programs.
There’s an AIDS spending cliff in Ethiopia and the government is already in free fall. Next year, Ethiopia will experience a 79% reduction in US HIV financing from PEPFAR. The announcement of these cuts came with an explanation that PEPFAR was “free(ing) up resources by reducing programs in lower HIV prevalence countries” (see blog). Further, Global Fund monies have gone almost completely undisbursed in 2012. These cuts in spending might be warranted due to epidemiological trends and improved efficiency, or might cripple progress as health programs dependent on external donors are cut back. The truth is, with the current poor status of basic information on beneficiaries and costs, it’s difficult to judge whether these cuts are good or bad.