Effective vaccines are developed through collaboration between governments, publicly funded research universities and for-profit pharmaceutical companies. But the incentives to produce the doses can often leave out lower-income countries.
CGD Policy Blogs
At a recent CGD staff presentation of our work into COVID-19 vaccines, our colleagues raised a large number of interesting questions, so, we asked our colleagues to send in their questions on the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio.
Today we launch an interactive tool that analyses the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, and generates estimates about the timelines for the vaccines in the portfolio.
As the world awaits the results of COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we have interviewed sixteen vaccine experts from the vaccine industry, academic, and regulatory agencies. Their overall message: the time to prepare is now.
Our new paper aims to answer this question using mathematical modelling and expert interviews to: better understand the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, and generate probabilistic estimates on timelines for approval and the manufacturing scale up.
We are developing a system of interconnected models which represent global manufacturing capability from the start of clinical trials to secondary vaccine manufacture; that is, time from first human trials to finished product ready to be shipped.
As vaccines complete the different phases of development (pre-clinical, phase I, phase II, phase III, regulatory review, and license), results will be published in the scientific literature and announced to the public through the media and press releases. We our currently working as part of a larger group to interview experts and give better guidance on the timelines and probabilities of success for a vaccine against COVID-19. In the meantime, it is important not to read too much into early stage results—this is why.
Around the world COVID-19 and the policy responses to it are causing unprecedented disruptions of life and wellbeing. As scientists and governments around the world race to develop a vaccine at scale, we take a look at what a portfolio approach entails and why it is so important.