In 2020, epidemiological modelling went from relative obscurity to being central in helping governments, and the public, understand COVID-19 as it spread around the world. In 2021, with the emergence of effective COVID-19 vaccines, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) will be critical to making the best possible decisions in bringing the pandemic under control, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this blog we look at the potential of HTA to inform how much vaccine countries should buy, who should pay, and how vaccines can be most effectively delivered.
CGD Policy Blogs
At a recent CGD staff presentation of our work into COVID-19 vaccines, our colleagues raised a large number of interesting questions, so, we asked our colleagues to send in their questions on the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio.
Today we launch an interactive tool that analyses the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, and generates estimates about the timelines for the vaccines in the portfolio.
Our new paper aims to answer this question using mathematical modelling and expert interviews to: better understand the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, and generate probabilistic estimates on timelines for approval and the manufacturing scale up.
We are developing a system of interconnected models which represent global manufacturing capability from the start of clinical trials to secondary vaccine manufacture; that is, time from first human trials to finished product ready to be shipped.
Around the world COVID-19 and the policy responses to it are causing unprecedented disruptions of life and wellbeing. As scientists and governments around the world race to develop a vaccine at scale, we take a look at what a portfolio approach entails and why it is so important.