Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

CGD Policy Blogs


An image of COVID patients and a doctor in Africa.

Plus ça change: COVID-19 and Its Collateral Impact during the Vaccine Era

Over the past year we partnered with researchers in Kenya, the Philippines, South Africa, and Uganda to document, from a whole-of-health perspective, what we know about the nature, scale, and scope of COVID-19’s disruptions to essential health services in those countries, and the health effects of such disruptions. In a working paper released today, we build on a blog we published in March when we released working papers from each country team (the papers are available here: Kenya, the Philippines, South Africa, Uganda). In this new working paper, we summarize the results and lessons across the four countries in more detail.  We also tie together many of the blogs we have written on this topic over the past year (this series of blogs can be found here).

A bar chart comparing cases over a similar timeframe from the four models, with ICL and the SA consortium much higher than the other two

What Can Policymakers Learn about COVID-19 from Looking at Different Model Estimates?

Because of the uncertainties that complicate modelling, there is value in different research groups working independently to build models. Different models will employ different methods, data, and assumptions and will seek to answer different policy questions. Here we take a look from an end-user’s perspective at what models can tell us, by looking for one example country, the Republic of South Africa.