Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

CGD Policy Blogs


Disease Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Have We Learned from Previous Outbreaks?

Before COVID-19, the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic (EVD epidemic), was one of the most heavily modelled outbreaks in history. Within the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, 31 mathematical models were developed. Despite the clear differences in the two outbreaks, the EVD epidemic can help us draw lessons to improve COVID-19 modelling and its reach in policymaking. We discuss some of those learnings in this piece