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CGD Policy Blogs


An image of the earth surrounded by a stethoscope, signifying global health

Getting to Convergence: How “Vertical” Health Programs Add Up to A Health System

Historically, donors and multilateral organisations have channelled funding in health through vertical disease programs, typically focussed on one disease area and a set of short- and medium-term objectives. We, and others, have argued that the “convergence” of verticals into a set of essential health benefits with pooled domestic and external funding to support its financing and delivery is the way ahead.

An image of someone receiving a malaria test

The Indirect Health Effects of COVID-19: Lockdown Measures and Service Provision

As we head into June, reports have continued to emerge that highlight the magnitude of the indirect effects the COVID-19 pandemic is having on  health systems around the world. The pandemic has created additional barriers for patients accessing essential care, whether it be restrictions on movement, transportation restrictions, stigma, impoverishment from loss of livelihoods, or avoidance of care due to concerns over contracting the virus.

Lab technicians analyze blood samples at Hospital do Subúrbio (Suburban Hospital), Brazil's first hospital under a public-private partnership model, in a low-income area of Salvador, Bahia. Photo: Mariana Ceratti / World Bank

Applying Caution with Unmitigated Scenarios: A Closer Look at Non-COVID-19 Deaths

In stressing the high numbers of additional people who are dying as an indirect result of COVID-19 measures, we may have given the impression that we believe that there would be no additional non-COVID-19 deaths in an unmitigated scenario. We don’t believe that. We aimed to illustrate how the calculator works, and to demonstrate how users can adapt it to their own setting. The key to the tool is that each user is able to adapt it for their own setting.

Disease Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Have We Learned from Previous Outbreaks?

Before COVID-19, the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic (EVD epidemic), was one of the most heavily modelled outbreaks in history. Within the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, 31 mathematical models were developed. Despite the clear differences in the two outbreaks, the EVD epidemic can help us draw lessons to improve COVID-19 modelling and its reach in policymaking. We discuss some of those learnings in this piece