Five key operational levers and choices determine how fast countries are able to roll out the COVID-19 vaccine. Ideally, someone at the national level makes these decisions, but this hasn’t always been easy in multi-level government systems.
CGD Policy Blogs
Today we launch an interactive tool that analyses the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, and generates estimates about the timelines for the vaccines in the portfolio.
Making the $12 Billion Go Further: Four Things the World Bank Can Do in Support of COVID-19 Vaccination Efforts
To maximise the impact of this badly needed investment to combat COVID and, most importantly, to avoid any perverse and potentially catastrophic implications of World Bank financing undermining current global efforts led by Gavi and CEPI, we propose that the World Bank commit to the four principles below.
As the world awaits the results of COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we have interviewed sixteen vaccine experts from the vaccine industry, academic, and regulatory agencies. Their overall message: the time to prepare is now.
Our new paper aims to answer this question using mathematical modelling and expert interviews to: better understand the COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, and generate probabilistic estimates on timelines for approval and the manufacturing scale up.
We are developing a system of interconnected models which represent global manufacturing capability from the start of clinical trials to secondary vaccine manufacture; that is, time from first human trials to finished product ready to be shipped.
As vaccines complete the different phases of development (pre-clinical, phase I, phase II, phase III, regulatory review, and license), results will be published in the scientific literature and announced to the public through the media and press releases. We our currently working as part of a larger group to interview experts and give better guidance on the timelines and probabilities of success for a vaccine against COVID-19. In the meantime, it is important not to read too much into early stage results—this is why.
Around the world COVID-19 and the policy responses to it are causing unprecedented disruptions of life and wellbeing. As scientists and governments around the world race to develop a vaccine at scale, we take a look at what a portfolio approach entails and why it is so important.