Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

CGD Policy Blogs

 

A gloved hand holds a COVID-19 vaccine vial in front of a blue background

Dear President Biden and Congress: Time for US to Lead Response to the Growing COVID-19 Global Vaccine Crisis

Today we joined colleagues from CSIS, Duke University, and the COVID Collective in an open letter to the Biden Administration and US Congress with a clear message: to hasten the end of the COVID-19 global pandemic, American leadership is required to ensure universal global access to high-quality and safe vaccines, support rapid vaccine distribution and administration, and build a sustainable global network of vaccine manufacturing capacity. Vaccines offer an exit route out of the pandemic – but only if they reach a critical mass of people in need across continents, socioeconomic strata, and marginalized populations.

An image of a group of women in India wearing masks.

India Needs to Focus on Three Urgent Actions to Mitigate its COVID-19 Humanitarian Crisis

India’s second COVID-19 wave has been explosive, reaching world record totals of over 300,000 daily officially reported cases. The true number is likely to be much higher, with a large number of cases missed as indicated by the delays in testing and rapidly rising positivity rates - currently one in every four people tested are positive for COVID-19 across India. Leading models estimate that there could be over 1 million cases per day. The health service has collapsed, with queues of ambulances parked outside full hospitals, oxygen and drug shortages in multiple states, and life-saving non-COVID services interrupted.

A close up of medical supplies, including syringes, at a hospital in Sri Lanka

Expanding Health Product Manufacturing in Africa: Ideas for Development Finance Institutions, Procurers, and Policymakers

In October 2020, the Center for Global Development—in partnership with African Union Development Agency-NEPAD (AUDA-NEPAD), UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), and the African Leaders Malaria Alliance—hosted a high-level roundtable on regional health product manufacturing in Africa. This blog is based on the authors’ reflections of the roundtable.

Demand Forecasting Takes Off

In early 2006, CGD convened a working group–led by Ruth Levine- to address a pervasive problem in global health: poor forecasting of expected demand for key products. Long-term strategic demand forecasts are needed in order for manufacturers to make capacity investments, make more accurate long term plans for manufacturing and distribution, and for donors to conduct better multi-year program planning. Medium-term demand forecasts are equally essential. When such forecasts are off, manufacturers have to dispose of unsold drugs; donors and ministries of health may face uncertain prices and availability of essential products; and –most importantly- communities and individuals can face the terrible prospect of shortages, incomplete treatments and the emergence of drug resistance.  The Wall Street Journal’s recent coverage of shortages of pediatric tuberculosis (TB) treatments demonstrates the weaknesses –or perhaps absence- of adequate demand forecasting in India’s anti-TB programs.