How is the pandemic likely to evolve as it spreads to poorer countries? In a new working paper, we attempt to answer one piece of that question, predicting the infection fatality rate for COVID-19 for 187 countries based on demography, comorbidities, and the strength of health systems.
CGD Policy Blogs
We’ll have to wait and see, but countries that have already reopened schools don’t show a huge trend break in new cases—though we note that those countries may have been better prepared than some which are about to reopen now, such as South Africa.
School closures, learning loss, and drop-outs will not be the only effects of COVID-19. School systems run on money. It’s impossible to provide access to schooling without financial resources, and despite occasional claims to the contrary, the best evidence suggests that the quality of education is also responsive to financial resources.
On what basis have some European policymakers decided that it’s wise to reopen schools? And how will those calculations differ in low- and middle-income countries?
In recent years, many commentators have asked if the World Bank is still relevant. We’re about to find out. To track the World Bank’s response to COVID-19, we’ve built a small interactive tool to display how much each country has received to date, and what’s currently in the pipeline for approval.
A broad array of international actors agrees that many developing countries desperately need to collect more tax revenue. But one part of the World Bank is pushing in the other direction.
What do new figures from the leaked report from India's National Sample Survery (NSS) say about growth?
While Djankov railed against our criticism of Doing Business’s ideological slant, he failed to respond whatsoever to the data-based, methodological points we raised about the Doing Business index. Whatever the ideological leanings of CGD staff, when confronted with data and code questioning our analysis, I hope we can do better than name-calling.
Leading economic indicators have slowed or reversed. Criticisms of official statistics are mounting. But the IMF and World Bank continue to forecast 6-percent growth by simple extrapolation.
A quarter-century after the empirical growth literature set out to explain why poor countries aren’t catching up with rich ones, cross-country regressions have mercifully gone out of fashion. But in the interim, the core facts have changed.