As the possibility of a new Cold War between the US and China gains traction in some foreign policy circles, the scale of Chinese development finance has taken center stage. A closer examination suggests the cost to China of this lending is distinctly underwhelming. It would be cheap for the US and Europe to match China’s lending numbers –and in the interest of global development if it was done right.
CGD Policy Blogs
Recording from Geneva and Washington, Rethinking Humanitarianism is a new podcast series from The New Humanitarian and the Center for Global Development. Join hosts Heba Aly and Jeremy Konyndyk as they explore the future of humanitarian aid at a critical time of transformation.
This week the IMF released new global economic growth projections in the face of COVID-19, updating their earlier projections from June and from April before that. In recent weeks, the World Bank has also released new projections for various regions. Here are six takeaways that we gleaned from reviewing those and dozens of other projections from other organizations over the course of the year.
The global economy is gradually healing from the economic blows dealt by the coronavirus pandemic, but the recovery remains fragile and halting. Reduced trade is more a symptom than a cause of those trends—and what governments do in terms of additional fiscal stimulus will do far more to determine the shape of the recovery in the United States and other countries. Still, trade policy could be a factor, supporting or undermining the nascent recovery.
Our recent paper examining the World Bank’s COVID-19 performance garnered a response from the institution, which you can read here. We very much welcome the bank’s comments on its crisis performance in reaction to our paper. We stand by the data and conclusions of our paper, but it’s worth reviewing some of the issues under debate here and reiterating the core questions and findings from our work.
After six months of school closures, Pakistan began reopening its schools in a phased manner on September 15. Schools had been shut since March 13, 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impacts, CGD partnered with TCF in Pakistan and with CERP to survey households with students in TCF schools on how COVID-19 has affected their children’s education, their livelihoods, and health.
COVID-19, of course, is not behind us—it may return and may again severely test the government’s management capacity. To prepare for this, the lessons learnt from coping with the crisis as it has unfolded thus far will be valuable both to Pakistan to manage a possible second wave, as well as to other countries.
Three years ago, the government pledged “to help improve access to UK markets for world’s poorest countries post-Brexit." Our experts review whether they are still on track to meet this.
Making the $12 Billion Go Further: Four Things the World Bank Can Do in Support of COVID-19 Vaccination Efforts
To maximise the impact of this badly needed investment to combat COVID and, most importantly, to avoid any perverse and potentially catastrophic implications of World Bank financing undermining current global efforts led by Gavi and CEPI, we propose that the World Bank commit to the four principles below.
The level and composition of taxes and expenditures vary considerably across low-income countries, which means their effects on countries’ growth, economic stability, redistribution, and welfare also differ.