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CGD Policy Blogs

 

Disease Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Have We Learned from Previous Outbreaks?

Before COVID-19, the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic (EVD epidemic), was one of the most heavily modelled outbreaks in history. Within the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, 31 mathematical models were developed. Despite the clear differences in the two outbreaks, the EVD epidemic can help us draw lessons to improve COVID-19 modelling and its reach in policymaking. We discuss some of those learnings in this piece

A map showing the stringency of lockdowns in Africa. Image from Our World in Data.

A Tool to Estimate the Net Health Impact of COVID-19 Policies

We have developed a simple tool that enables users to estimate non-COVID-19 health effects for their own context, using their own data or assumptions. In this blog, we explain how the COVID-19 Net Health Impact Calculator works and demonstrate its use by providing some preliminary estimates for the Sahel region. We encourage you to explore the calculator and read more about its use in its user guide.