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CGD in the News

July 25, 2021

El País: ¡Africanos, rescatadnos!

From the article:

Si las cosas siguen como hasta ahora, la población europea en edad de trabajar (20-64 años en UE y Reino Unido) se habrá reducido en 95 millones de personas entre 2015 y 2050. La consecuencia inevitable de este agujero es una economía con más dificultades para crecer y un sistema de bienestar con más problemas para ser financiado. La distopía de un Estado gripado por el envejecimiento de su población es ya una realidad en una potencia como Japón, pero muchos otros lugares ofrecen una fotografía del futuro que nos espera: los cultivos no recogidos en el Reino Unido post-Brexit, el déficit de personal sanitario en Alemania o la desatención del sistema de cuidados infantiles en Irlanda.

Este argumento es el punto de partida de un interesante trabajo de Charles Kenny y George Yang, investigadores del estadounidense Center for Global Development. El desajuste entre la demanda y la oferta de trabajadores, cuentan, podrá ser suplido en parte por la robotización de la producción y el estímulo de la natalidad. Pero, como ha demostrado el caso japonés, la envergadura de este desafío es de tal calibre que solo una versión ‘porno suave’ de Isaac Asimov nos sacaría del atolladero.

Tal vez Vox y otros proud boys europeos sueñen con un futuro plagado de hombres blancos yendo a misa con andadores, pero todos los demás deberíamos ir adelantándonos a la realidad. Y esta es que necesitaremos muchos más inmigrantes formados de los que ahora están llegando. De hecho, los cálculos de Kenny para este blog coinciden con las estimaciones publicadas recientemente por el Gobierno (España 2050) y por las de otros estudios de prestigio que han analizado la evolución de la tasa de dependencia entre pensionistas y trabajadores activos: el consenso es que España precisará añadir más de 6 millones de trabajadores extranjeros entre ahora y mediados de siglo, una entrada neta de casi 200.000 por año.

July 24, 2021

Washington Post Editorial: The official pandemic death toll is horrific. The actual toll could be twice that.

From the article:

A key measure, excess mortality, is the difference between the observed numbers of deaths from all causes and what would normally be expected over the same time period, absent the pandemic. This helps illuminate the true scope of the losses, and results can be startling. For example, India’s reported toll is about 419,470. But when Abhishek Anand and colleagues at the Center for Global Development looked at three different data sources, they estimated that excess mortality in India during the pandemic was “an order of magnitude” greater than the official figure, or about 3.4 million to 4.9 million deaths. Although the study cautioned that data gaps remain, they concluded that India may have misjudged the size of the first wave, when up to 2 million may have died. They conclude that “not grasping the scale of the tragedy in real time in the first wave may have bred the collective complacency that led to the horrors of the second wave.”

July 23, 2021

Global Finance Magazine: De-Risking: The Next Chapter

From the article:

Fixing AML: Can New Technology Help Address the De-risking Dilemma, a 2018 report by the Center for Global Development (CGD), assesses six technologies—biometrics, KYC utilities, machine learning, big data, blockchain and legal entity identifiers—and their potential to solve the de-risking problem. The report’s authors conclude that more regulatory guidance and experimentation with machine learning is needed, and that solutions such as legal entity identifiers and biometrics need to scale internationally or into developing countries before they can make a real difference.

“In many cases, AI is far more robust and accurate than what has gone before,” says Vijaya Ramachandran, one of the report’s authors and a nonresident fellow at CGD. “It has enormous potential to identify patterns related to human and drug trafficking.”

The challenge, according to Ramachandran, is that AML regulation is exceedingly based on things like suspicious activity reports (SARs). “It doesn’t yet support the kinds of technologies we’re seeing emerge, much to the frustration of the tech companies developing them.”

July 22, 2021

Economist: India’s economy is suffering from long covid

From the article:

Some 4m Indians had died of covid-19 by the end of June, according to The Economist’s latest estimate of the real toll, endorsed in a new study published this week by Abhishek Anand and colleagues at the Centre for Global Development, a think-tank in Washington, dc. That is ten times as many as official figures show. It suggests the virus has been much deadlier in India than in hard-hit rich countries such as Britain and America, whose mortality rates looked roughly similar to India’s until its devastating second wave. So it is no surprise that the country is struggling to get back on track.

July 22, 2021

Devex: What's in the US Senate's pandemic preparedness bill?

From the article:

Even at the World Bank, a new mechanism could be structured in a number of different ways.

The Global Fund technically operates under the auspices of the World Bank, which serves a treasury function for the organization but is otherwise hands-off. A similar structure could work with this new fund, or it could have closer ties to the World Bank, which is the case with some other global funds and facilities, said Reynolds.

A facility similar to the Global Environment Facility at the World Bank, focused on pandemic preparedness and response would work well, said Amanda Glassman, executive vice president at the Center for Global Development.

July 21, 2021

NPR: Study Suggests That India's Pandemic Death Toll Is Higher Than Official Data

About the clip:

NPR's Noel King talks to Arvind Subramanian of Brown University's Watson Center and former chief economic adviser to the government of India, about the likely undercount of COVID-19 deaths in India.

July 21, 2021

Bloomberg: Covid May Have Claimed as Many as 5 Million Lives in India

From the article:

report from the Washington-based Center for Global Development think tank released Tuesday studied data from three different sources, finding that excess deaths — a term public health experts use to describe mortality from all causes during a crisis that is above what would have been expected in ‘normal’ conditions — likely ranged between 3.4 million to 4.9 million.

“Regardless of source and estimate, actual deaths during the Covid pandemic are likely to have been an order of magnitude greater than the official count,” said the report, co-authored by Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the Indian government and two other researchers. “True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India’s worst human tragedy since partition and independence.”

July 20, 2021

New York Times: India’s true pandemic death toll is likely to be well over 3 million, a new study finds.

From the article:

In a comprehensive examination of the true toll of the pandemic in the sprawling nation of 1.4 billion, the Center for Global Development, a Washington research institute, attempted to quantify excess deaths from all causes during the pandemic based on state data, international estimates, serological studies and household surveys.

“True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India’s worst human tragedy,” said its authors, one of whom is a former chief economic adviser to the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

July 20, 2021

Wall Street Journal: India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions, Study Finds

From the article:

India has officially recorded more than 414,000 coronavirus deaths, but scientists and researchers have said that number undercounts the real toll. When India’s cases peaked in April and May, hospitals across the country were forced to turn away patients who later died at home, often untested.

The study pegged excess deaths—or the number of people who died beyond what is normally expected—at between 3.4 million and 4.7 million from January 2020 to June 2021, according to the report released Tuesday from Arvind Subramanian, a former chief economic adviser for the Indian government, and researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University.

One estimate in the study pegged Covid-19 deaths at about four million, roughly 10 times the official count. “True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India’s worst human tragedy since partition and independence,” the report said.

July 20, 2021

Indian Express: Why we need to count the Covid dead

From the op-ed:

Of another existential threat, Bob Dylan accusingly asked, “How many deaths will it take till we know that too many people have died?” This Covid pandemic in India has seen a curious but no less tragic inversion of that sentiment: Only a sense that too many died in the second wave has really galvanised efforts to find out the true number of deaths.

The official Covid death count as of end-June 2021 is 4,000,000. The reality is, of course, catastrophically worse. Unlike in other countries, authoritative excess death estimates based on official data have not been available because government recording of deaths, especially at the Centre, has been lagging. As a result, thus far, and with some exceptions, attempts to capture the sombre reality have been inadequate.