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WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
CGD NOTES
March 28, 2024
Over the past two decades, China has become a distinctive and increasingly important donor of development assistance for health (DAH). However, little is known about what factors influence China’s priority-setting for DAH. In this study, we provide an updated analysis of trends in the priorities of ...
Blog Post
March 07, 2024
An extraordinary cascade of crises threatens Africa’s growth and economic stability. The incomplete economic recovery from the global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, food and fuel inflation, rising debt distress, and Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza have all aggravated geopolitical and geo-econo...
Blog Post
February 09, 2024
Standing at a crucial crossroads, Libya is a nation brimming with promise yet besieged by peril. Recent strides by the “6+6 Committee” in establishing election laws have sparked hope in a country long plagued by turmoil. This development, a product of concerted effort following a decade of instabili...
Blog Post
June 20, 2023
The Biden administration’s efforts to provide attractive alternatives to Chinese finance in the developing world coincides with a period of pronounced financial stresses for these countries. After years of ready access to capital markets, coinciding with China’s rise as the dominant source of govern...
Blog Post
June 14, 2023
An interesting paper (and podcast) by Francis Fukuyama and Michael Bennon look at China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and recent debt distress in BRI project countries, building on work by Scott Morris and co-authors that examined 100 Chinese debt contracts with foreign governments. BRI has invol...
Blog Post
May 23, 2023
The past year has been challenging and turbulent for many frontier markets in Africa. In 2022, African economies met headwinds of inflation, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sovereign debt challenges. This led to a decrease in demand for African goods and services, as well as reduced inve...
CGD NOTES
May 15, 2023
The ability of the World Bank to strike an appropriate balance between country demands and global goods depends on the institution’s shareholders. Yet, the deterioration in the bilateral relationship between the United States and China now threatens to undermine effective governance at the instituti...