A Victory for Democracy in Nigeria

Nigeria's President Obasanjo bowed to popular will yesterday and endorsed the legislature’s decision to reject bills that would have made it possible for him to seek a third term. The actions by Nigeria's Senate and House of Representatives, and the president’s wise acquiescence, put to rest fears that Obasanjo might join Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Chad’s Idriss Deby in discarding democracy in favor of a personal stranglehold on power. Praise for the move was nearly universal - both within and outside Nigeria. The New York Times had called the defeated amendment a “disaster in the making” while an editorial in Nigeria’s This Day thanked the National Assembly for a decision that “spared the agony of a creeping tyranny.”Proponents of the third term had argued that the administration needed additional time to consolidate its reform program and that the battle for a successor would increase violent clashes in the run-up to the 2007 election. Both are valid concerns. A new administration may rollback some of the Obasanjo team’s reforms and the next year will be dangerous, as possible successors jockey for position and exploit the country’s deep regional, ethnic and religious divisions. But some of the administration’s achievements are irreversible, such as the debt relief deal and the recent banking consolidation, and efforts are underway to institutionalize other reforms. Perhaps the most important of these is the Fiscal Responsibility Bill currently before the National Assembly, the passage of which Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says will “change Nigeria.”No civilian Nigerian president has ever peacefully ceded power and, of all the good Obasanjo has brought the country, the peaceful transfer of rule could be his most enduring legacy. Not only will such a transition help cement civilian democracy in Nigeria, it will serve as an example to others in the region. Uganda and Chad notwithstanding, many African countries are showing signs of democratic maturation. Similar efforts to change the constitution by Frederick Chiluba in Zambia and Bakili Muluzi in Malawi both failed, and Thabo Mbeki ruled out running for a third term in South Africa. In a public statement following the Senate’s rejection of the bill, President Obasanjo joined the international chorus praising the move, calling it a “victory for democracy.” Despite major challenges facing Nigeria over the next year, there is little doubt he is right.