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On the AIDS policy blog AIDS Matters, Jim Cashel reports the grim news that an effective AIDS vaccine is at least 15 years away.

"As more research is conducted on vaccines, the time estimate for an effective AIDS vaccine continues to recede. In 1984, Margaret Heckler, Secretary of Health and Human Services, predicted an AIDS vaccine would be available in 1986. In 1997, President Clinton called for an AIDS vaccine by 2007. Now the date has been pushed to 2020 at the earliest -- 40 years following the discovery of HIV."

It isn't clear what assumption is being made how much investment in scientific research there would be over this period, or whether the date could be brought forward if that were increased.

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CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.