Merck Struggles After Vioxx Verdict

August 22, 2005

According to this piece from Reuters:

Merck & Co., already strapped with declining earnings and a weak roster of future drugs, could fall further behind in its quest for new medicines...Merck's hopes to fill the void by launching three promising vaccines in the coming year, including ones against viruses that cause cervical cancer and shingles. Another vaccine targets the diarrhea-causing rotavirus which kills hundreds of thousands of children in developing countries each year.Jon LeCroy, an analyst at Natexis Bleichroeder, said the three vaccines are likely to generate combined peak annual sales of less than $1 billion.

Owen comments: The figure of a combined peak of $1 billion a year for three vaccines is of the same order of magnitude as the estimates made in the CGD report, Marking Markets for Vaccine, which found that that the market size for a new pharmaceutical was a peak of about $500m a year per product.

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