Mangoes vs. Peanuts and More: What We Saw and Didn’t See in Hillary Clinton’s Trip to Pakistan

This is a joint post with Molly Kinder.This week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Pakistan was front-page news in every Pakistani newspaper (and most here in the United States as well).  Clinton brought with her two main things: a long list of new aid projects worth half a billion dollars—see the box below for what was on the list—and a strong message to Pakistanis that the United States intends to stick it out for the long haul.Before the trip, we thought this was the best chance Clinton would have to signal to the Pakistanis that the U.S. development program wasn’t the sort of fickle short-sighted engagement they’ve come to expect from the United States. (And we outlined an idea for how she should do that).  The result: while Clinton’s visit fell short of being a real game-changer, it was a clear, though incremental, step forward.Quickly, some other things we saw (and two we didn’t see) in Clinton’s trip.What we saw:

1. Water, water, water. Water is now a major U.S. development priority in Pakistan, along with energy.  Clinton confessed that at first “water was not originally on our list.” But Clinton said discussions with Pakistanis in and out of government revealed the sector to be a priority in Pakistan, and, “water moved to the top of the list.”  (This priority is shared by Pakistan’s military leadership who, according to   Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper , now place the water crisis and dispute with India as their most pressing issue, above terrorism and Kashmir.) The situation is indeed dire.  As the Wilson Center’s report “Running on Empty” points out, Pakistan’s water availability has plummeted, its water availability per capita ranks dead last out of 26 Asian countries, and by 2035 or sooner the country is expected to become water-scarce.  At the household level, access to safe drinking water is scarce and 630 children die each day from diarrhea brought on by waterborne illnesses.  Look for a major U.S. push on water – in both aid dollars and high-level attention -- in Pakistan in the coming year.
2. Say it again: long-term, enduring, lasting, future. Secretary Clinton repeated time and again her desire to demonstrate to Pakistanis that the United States is committed to Pakistan’s development for the long haul, reassuring words from the world’s most powerful diplomat. For this message to stick, though, we (along with CGD president Nancy Birdsall) suggest Secretary Clinton lay out a clear and compelling vision of what development success means in the lives of Pakistanis.  Then, together with the Pakistani government, commit to measuring progress against a few key indicators of that success.
3. Development: good for diplomacy and security, but also important in itself. While Secretary Clinton made no secret of the diplomatic objectives of the U.S. development assistance program –eroding the mistrust of Pakistanis and strengthening the U.S.-Pakistani alliance– we were very encouraged by her statements about the value of development in Pakistan as an important goal in itself, full stop.  In her closing press conference, Clinton said, “One might ask, what does exporting mangoes have to do with security? Well, probably not very much, but any time we can put people to work, open markets, create more opportunity in Pakistan, that in and of itself is a good thing.  And it is something that the United States is committed to doing.”
4. Strong words on taxes.  Clinton didn’t say much about the policy reforms that the U.S. would like to see, with one clear exception: the need to reform Pakistan’s abysmal tax system –which is critical not only for Pakistan’s development, but also for sustaining support for the U.S. aid program in Congress and at home.  “Now you face some hard choices,” said Clinton in her opening remarks, “such as meaningful tax reforms that are needed to put Pakistan on the path to long-term economic prosperity.  The United States will offer support while you make these tough reforms.”

What we didn’t see:

1. Raj Shah and USAID. USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah, who traveled with Secretary Clinton to Pakistan, was virtually invisible during the trip.  We were particularly surprised not to see Administrator Shah behind the podium with Secretary Clinton during press conferences when she announced the new aid programs, since USAID will be overseeing most of them.  Shah was also noticeably absent from the microphone during Clinton’s town hall meeting, where Clinton was asked detailed questions from Pakistanis in the audience about the U.S. aid program – questions about health systems, for instance, that Shah seemed best suited to answer.  We were also struck that the fact sheets describing each of the new signature aid projects were posted immediately on the State Department’s website, and, three days later, have yet to appear on USAID/Pakistan’s site.
2. Trade access (other than mangoes). The announcement during Clinton’s trip of an Afghanistan-Pakistan trade deal was a coup for the United States. Asked about trade access to U.S. markets, however, Clinton had less to offer, acknowledging that it “is challenging.”  At her town hall meeting she cited the new trade agreement granting market access to Pakistani mangoes and emphasized that she and President Obama “are making a big push on the ROZs (Reconstruction Opportunity Zones).”  Without broader trade access, however, this risks translating to mangoes for Americans and little more than peanuts for Pakistanis.  As our colleague Kim Elliott points out, the ROZ legislation in its current form would have little economic impact unless it includes expanded trade access for all Pakistani exports from all of Pakistan.

In the end, this trip went about as well as one could reasonably have expected. The last time Clinton visited Pakistan, she faced an outright suspicious Pakistani public. This time, the overall mood was more positive, though opinion polls suggest a fix for widespread anti-American sentiment is still nowhere in sight.The real $7.5 billion question, though, is hard to answer—will the laundry list of projects announced during Clinton’s trip be part of a development strategy that makes a tangible difference in the lives of ordinary Pakistani citizens? Will champions within the Pakistani government emerge who are willing and able to accompany these aid projects with tough energy, tax, and civil service reforms? Let’s wait and see…