Economics & Marginalia: September 17, 2021

Hi all,

One day I will start a crowdfunder to get the start up capital for a pet project of mine: the Bad Idea Hall of Fame, a place that records and denigrates the dumbest things people have done. In it will be the first draft of Gigli, a video of the homophobes who tried to attack two men dressed in drag, only to painfully discover they were professional fighters on a night out, and MC Hammer’s trousers. But I’m willing to bet that in the centre of the main hall, standing like Dippy the diplodocus in the National History Museum, will be the giant woolly mammoth a private firm have raised $15 million to try and clone. Are these people millennials? Were they not born when Jurassic Park was released? This is not going to end well, particularly when you consider our history of releasing rather less scary creatures: we can’t even release butterflies into the wild without unleashing swarms of parasitic wasps and – in a twist worthy of M. Night Shyamalan – wasps that parasitise the parasitic wasps. When the mammoth barfs out a sabretooth tiger, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

1. Of course, if you want an economics-related idea for the Bad Idea Hall of Fame, how about that time the World Bank decided to juice the Doing Business Report to benefit China and Saudi Arabia, while simultaneously smearing the legitimate critics of the work? After accusations of malpractice in the report surfaced, a full investigation resulted, and results are incredibly damning. First, the report has been completely discontinued after clear evidence of manipulation for political reasons was discovered. Secondly, the report directly implicates the now-Managing Director of the IMF, which is… not great, let’s say. Thirdly, it uncovers a spectacularly toxic working environment, once again naming names. And finally, it prompted Paul Romer to emerge wielding his flamethrower. I don’t know if Justin Sandefur celebrates his victories like Eric Killmonger, but I think this one might lead to a few new notches by the time it plays out. And all of this is based on scandal. They might have dumped the index purely on its own merits some time ago.
2. So, let’s palate cleanse with the good side of research: via David McKenzie, I came across this FAQ by Macartan Humphreys responding to the common issues people bring up with randomised control trial papers, with simple and clear explanations of which ones (might) matter, and when. I’m boning up on this before my next seminar. And also from the same source, just in case you’re starting to feel good about economics again, Scott Cunningham on mental health among students of the discipline.
3. I was recently part of a long twitter conversation about childcare (and the eye-watering cost thereof in the UK) and – of course – Planet Money have just done a show on it, and specifically the substantial penalty women face in the workplace due to the childcare burden they disproportionately shoulder. It’s an interesting show, and discusses the importance of flexible workplaces and so on but you know what doesn’t get a mention: fathers and husbands (transcript). The culture and structure of childcare is not handed down by nature. Choices, cultures and policies all matter, and the UK hasn’t really done particularly well on any of them.
4. Branko Milanovic on six distinct intellectual approaches to globalization – a good summary of the different approaches you’ll find in politics and on Twitter, usually argued inconsistently, as indeed he points out some of them are inherently. It ends on an optimistic note, with at least one consistent (if not perfect by any means) way of ‘improving’ globalisation. I rather suspect one of the more incoherent approaches will eventually dominate, but then politics in the UK isn’t exactly designed to build optimists right now.
5. Is China about to slip into an economic crisis? Literally every time in the last 15 years I’ve read predictions of the Chinese economy’s impending doom, they’ve been wrong, but the default of a real estate firm on debts of $300 billion does rather bring back 2008 memories; Atif Mian thinks that financial crisis is unlikely but a growth crisis is not.
6. I recently complained about the half-life of stupid policy, but Tim Harford reminds me that all policy has a tendency to last rather longer than expected. I worry so much that when dumb policy is coupled with institutional change to support it (whatever could I be talking about, he says as he surveys the wreckage of Britain’s development policy and budget), permanently worse outcomes are on the cards.
7. And lastly, it’s Friday, and I need a bad movie and a good bottle of wine. LitHub narrow the search for the former for me, with this piece on all the books read by major characters in terrible movies from the 2000s – a category in which they are spoilt for choice. In related news, I have realised that if Almost Famous was a person, it would now legally be allowed to drink in the US and I feel *old*.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

R