Demand Forecasting Consultation Report Now Available for Feedback

February 20, 2007

I invite your feedback on the consultation draft (.pdf) of CGD's Global Health Forecasting Working Group report. The report describes the challenges of forecasting demand for critical medical technologies and focuses on near- and long-term solutions to the persistent problems in demand forecasting. We'd like to hear your comments on the Working Group's preliminary recommendations to: 1) improve the capacity to develop credible forecasts by taking forecasting seriously; 2) mobilize and share information in a coordinated way through the establishment of an infomediary; and 3) share risks through creative contractual arrangements. We'd particularly appreciate thoughts on the following questions:

  1. Is the demand forecasting problem well described, in the broader context of risks and incentives in the global health supply chain?
  2. How well do the findings of the risk and incentives audit for ACTs apply to your products? What are the key differences and similarities that you see by product type?
  3. Are the discussions of forecasting methods, information needs, and contracting options appropriate, at the right level of detail, and framed correctly within the context of the report?
  4. Are there Principles of Forecasting that you would like to see added?
  5. What are your views on the viability of the global health infomediary? What business model do you think should be developed for access to the infomediary? Do you think users should pay, or receive access free of charge? Do you think there are some categories of users that should have free access?
  6. Do you think contracting arrangements can be changed? What are some of the preconditions for this to happen?
  7. Would the proposed solutions benefit your own organization or similar stakeholder organizations?
  8. Do you see potential areas of overlap or opportunities for engagement with existing or planned activities being undertaken by other organizations (including your own)?
  9. What are the major political, institutional, funding or other barriers to implementation of the recommendations? Are there any specific actions that could encourage broader buy-in and support? What might be the sources of opposition?
  10. Does this report raise any questions for a future research or advocacy agenda?

Input received through March 23rd will help the Working Group finalize its recommendations for publication in late spring/early summer. So please read the report and share your thoughts in the comments below!

* For periodic updates on the progress of the Global Health Forecasting Working Group as well as other news and developments in demand forecasting for critical medical technologies, subscribe to CGD's new Demand Forecasting E-Update.


CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.