Michael Clemens

Abstract: This paper examines how US military aid affects political violence and democracy in Colombia. Since military aid is channeled to particular Colombian army brigades operating out of government military bases, we compare how changes in aid affect violence and elections outcomes in municipalities with and without bases. To address potential endogeneity in the timing of aid, we use an instrument based on U.S. military aid to the rest of the world (excluding Latin America). We find that increases in US military lead to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries (who are aligned with the government), but have no significant effect on attacks by guerillas. The aid shock also results in more paramilitary political assassinations during election periods, but has no significant effect on guerilla assassinations. Finally, increases in aid reduce voter turnout in base municipalities, and these effects are larger in politically contested areas. The results suggest that foreign military aid may strengthen the capacity of armed non-state actors, undermining domestic political institutions.

As the Obama Administration begins to consider the key issues of U.S. immigration reform this summer, the Center for Global Development (CGD) and the Center for International Development at Harvard University convened a research conference on May 26, 2009 with thought leaders from Harvard University, CGD, the University of Chicago, and the World Bank, among others, to offer groundbreaking insights into the links between migration, remittances and prosperity. They were joined by leading voices from the policy community who offered new perspectives on the politics and possibilities of comprehensive immigration reform in the United States.

Brain drain has long been seen in developing countries as an undesirable consequence of migration. This concern is amplified by the recent increase in skilled emigration as some developed countries orient their immigration policies to embrace higher-skilled workers. Economic theory suggests a range of possible benefits and costs to sending countries from skilled emigration, but the evidence base is very limited. David McKenzie presents unique survey work conducted with John Gibson tracking worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries. McKenzie's presentation draws on the Tonga experience, describing the impact of skilled migration on the country, including fiscal and demographic implications.

The New Ideas in Development After the Financial Crisis Conference, sponsored by CGD and the Bernard L. Schwartz Forum on Constructive Capitalism, will examine the implications of the global financial crisis on existing development strategies. Panels of distinguished academics and policy practitioners will explore how different regions of the developing world are interpreting this crisis and how they are likely to respond on a national and international level.

We use a panel of country-level crop yields in Africa to estimate the relationship between yields and temperature as well as precipitation. Maize, sorghum, millet, and groundnuts are predicted to show significant yield reductions in the medium term even under moderate warming. Our estimation uses the distribution of temperatures within each day at the location a particular crop is grown. Given potential data quality issues for Africa, the predicted temperature response function is contrasted to the one in the United States, where we find robust nonlinear temperature effects, i.e., yields are first increasing in temperature, but decrease sharply once they pass an upper threshold (29C for maize). The slope of the decline above the threshold is much steeper than the incline below it. The increased frequency of temperatures above the upper threshold is responsible for the significant reduction in yields.

This article presents a new perspective on the impact of migration and remittances on time allocation in migrant-sending families. It is a common finding that labor market participation is lower in migrant households. We look at the channels behind this stylized fact, by investigating if migration affects three main reasons for inactivity: (i) leisure consumption (ii) home production and (iii) higher education. Based on household survey data from Moldova, our results challenge the assertion that those who stay behind consume more leisure. Instead, living in a migrant household implies higher probabilities of intra-household labor substitution and home production. For adolescents in migrant families, we also find a substantially higher likelihood of university enrolment. Altogether, the higher levels of inactivity among migrant families can be attributed to education and housework activities, with little evidence for disincentive effects.

The economic potential of globalization may ultimately depend on the international mobility of highly talented individuals who transfer and circulate knowledge and skills. Examples are seen throughout the globe of these skilled individuals utilizing ideas, capital and innovation to contribute to new technologies and business creation, both in their own countries and abroad. In today's globalized economy, the concept of "brain drain" is given a fresh look when highlighting the positive impacts of talent mobility on development. On April 2, Global Economy and Development at Brookings will host the release of a new publication, The International Mobility of Talent Types, Causes, and Development Impact Track (Oxford University Press, 2008), in coordination with the World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University. Panelists will discuss the main determinants and development impact of talent mobility and how there is much to gain within the global economy if it is effectively managed. Experts include: Andres Solimano, AnnaLee Saxenian, Michael Clemens and Danny Leipziger. Brookings Nonresident Fellow Neil G. Ruiz will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion. After the program, panelists will take audience questions. At the conclusion of the event there will be a reception in the Somers Room.

The current share of women in the world's international migrant population is close to one half. Despite the great number of female migrants, there has until recently been a striking lack of gender analysis in the economic literature on international migration and development. A book just published by the World Bank, The International Migration of Women, provides six new studies focusing on the nexus between gender, international migration and economic development. The researchers responsible for the book will present some of the book's main findings and their policy implications, as well as highlighting several research questions that remain open.